The established working-paper library remains available below. These conceptual drafts are not presented as empirical studies or independently peer-reviewed publications.
MSI WORKING PAPERS · 01Medicines Security: From Supply Continuity to National Resilience
This conceptual working paper asks how medicines security should be understood when availability depends on institutions, industrial capability and international networks. It distinguishes current supply continuity from the capacity to anticipate, absorb, adapt to and recover from disruption. A ten-domain framework is proposed to connect governance, science, manufacturing, supply chain, investment, technology, geopolitics, regulation, people and future dynamics. Selected UK policy documents and recent scholarship provide context rather than a comprehensive evidence synthesis. The principal contribution is a proposed chain linking risk ownership, evidence, decisions and tested recovery options. Notification counts are treated as reporting-system observations rather than direct measures of patient harm. The paper sets out candidate indicators, a practical assurance approach and a prospective validation study. It does not claim a validated Index, exhaustive literature coverage or causal evidence for the recommendations.
READ WORKING PAPER ↗DOWNLOAD PDF ↓MSI WORKING PAPERS · 02Artificial Intelligence and Medicines Security
This working paper proposes a decision-centred approach to AI in medicines-security systems. It examines how forecasting, document analysis, dependency mapping and scenario support could contribute to resilience without confusing computational performance with operational benefit. Recent healthcare supply-chain scholarship is used to identify the gap between modelling and evaluated deployment, while WHO guidance provides governance context. The contribution is a proposed assurance sequence covering decision definition, data readiness, comparator selection, prospective testing, human escalation and maintenance. A distinction is made between source-grounded research assistance and operational early-warning systems. The paper proposes a limited pilot using retrospective records followed by silent prospective observation. It does not report a tested model, quantified benefit or validated shortage prediction. It concludes that AI should be judged by the quality and timeliness of authorised decisions and equitable access outcomes, with explicit reporting of failures and uncertainty.
READ WORKING PAPER ↗DOWNLOAD PDF ↓MSI WORKING PAPERS · 03Industrial Strategy for Secure Medicines Manufacturing
This working paper considers how pharmaceutical industrial strategy can be evaluated through usable capability rather than announced investment alone. It distinguishes location, capacity and assured access, and proposes a capability contract linking public support to verifiable resilience conditions. The UK Life Sciences Sector Plan, current workforce policy and manufacturing-fund guidance provide context. The analysis develops a product-specific assessment of facilities, inputs, quality systems, workforce, commercial viability and recovery options. It proposes a comparative documentary study and a pilot assurance method without claiming new empirical findings. The paper argues that domestic capacity, trusted international cooperation and diversified sourcing should be considered as complementary options. Strategic support requires clear additionality, delivery milestones and a counterfactual. The proposed framework remains a research proposition, with trade-offs concerning cost, equity, international access and opportunity cost explicitly identified.
READ WORKING PAPER ↗DOWNLOAD PDF ↓MSI WORKING PAPERS · 04Governing Global Pharmaceutical Dependencies
This working paper examines when international pharmaceutical dependence becomes a strategic vulnerability and how institutions can govern it without assuming self-sufficiency is achievable or desirable. It proposes a dependency-assessment approach based on criticality, concentration, substitutability, correlated exposure and recovery time. Selected UK supply-chain and medicines policy documents provide context. The contribution is a proposed dependency record and escalation process that connects network evidence to authorised decisions. Diversification is treated as a property of underlying production and response capacity, not simply the number of contracting suppliers. The paper considers trusted cooperation, reserves and domestic capability as options to compare for a defined access risk. It proposes a product-pathway case-study method and highlights uncertainties in trade and supplier data. No national dependency score, causal intervention effect or current geopolitical forecast is reported.
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